人工智能机器人的崛起——实体AI即将到来（英）Citi-2024-12

December 2024Citi GPS:Global Perspectives SolutionsTHE RISE OF AI ROBOTSPhysical Al is Coming for YouWe are entering a new era in which Al-robots and humanoids will be moving allaround us.Our analysis suggests there will likely be 1.3bn Al-robots by 2035 and4bn by 2050Jensen Huang,CEO of NVIDIA,recently stated that "the next wave of Al is here.Robotics,powered by physical Al,will revolutionize industries.Elon Musk,CEO ofTesla,said the market for one form or robot-humanoids-could exceed 1bn unitsper year and that we will eventually have more robots than humans.2There are 3 primary drivers of this new market:1.Technology-multiple technological advances,especially in ArtificialIntelligence (Al)have dramatically changed the outlook for robots.2.Economics-Robots can provide solutions to labor shortages.Shortages areexacerbated by aging demographics and more restrictive immigration policies.In addition,the payback period for capable robots looks increasingly attractiveversus humans.Labor accounts for over 50%of GDP globally.So the marketopportunity could be enormous.3.Betterment-Technological progress has freed people up from mundane tasksand increased leisure time.Continuing this trend Al-robots will offer peopleaccess to robotic cleaners,butlers,chauffeurs,assistants,and carers.Exploring these drivers,this report is organized into 3 primary sections:1.Technology-we highlight 9 changes in Chapter 1.The most significant comefrom advancements in Al allowing robots to see,to learn,to move,to talk,totake instruction into code and then actions.Only recently has multi-modal Alallowed all these elements to fit together.Al in turn is becoming embodied andphysical.In parallel have been advancements in dexterity.Some robots cannow thread a needle or suture a kernel of corn.Robots are on the move,fromtheory to reality and from useless to useful.2.Use cases-static robots are also growing,but the focus of this report is on Al-enabled robots that move.Chapters 2-8 look at potential use cases for Al-robots,from cleaning,to driving,to delivery,to use in industrial,construction,retail,hospitality,and care sectors.Our proprietary analysis of 9 uses caseareas forecasts 4.1 billion robots by 2050.For one use case,humanoids,wefurther break this down into 7 areas.Our methodology is summarized next.3.Challenges-Chapter 10 looks at 12 challenges that deserve attention,debateand solutions.Despite the challenges,we conclude that a huge new(non-human)market is beingborn.And that Al-robots are coming for you.NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Keynote at COMPUTEX 20242 Bloomberg Technology Elon Musk Says There will be more robots than people by2040©2024 Citigroup